2019 год на рынке ипотечного кредитования в Канаде стал переломным. От падения процентных ставок до роста темпов роста ипотеки в конце года и растущего влияния онлайн-дисконтных ипотечных кредиторов этот год стал своего рода значимой вехой.
Заглядывая в будущее, 2020 год гарантированно будет иметь свои особенности. Вот пять предсказаний, что должно произойти:
Больше резервного ипотечного рынка
Прошло несколько десятилетий с момента появления Интернета, но кредиторы наконец-то начинают осознавать, насколько они конкурентноспособны, чтобы завоевывать заемщиков онлайн. В этом году начался новый уровень онлайн-ипотечного конкурса. Спрэды между типичными фиксированными пятилетними ставками с глубокими скидками и пятилетней своповой ставкой в Канаде (приблизительный показатель базовых затрат на финансирование кредитора) сократились до самого низкого уровня за всю историю наблюдений, что отслеживается RateSpy.com. Результатом битв за ставки были такие, как motusbank, HSBC и онлайн-брокеры. Ожидайте, что 2020 рынок будет еще более конкурентоспособным, поскольку на рынок выйдут новые, ориентированные на цифровую ориентацию, ипотечные кредиторы, заинтересованные в потребителе, включая один или несколько известных брендов.
Больше «прозрачных» банков
В 2019 году Банк Новой Шотландии отошел от своих коллег из крупных банков, впервые объявив о своих лучших ипотечных ставках в Интернете. В онлайн-ипотечном приложении Scotiabank eHome предусмотрены ставки, которые большинство банков не будут касаться. И клиенты обратили на это внимание: более 100 000 заемщиков попробовали eHome в этом году. Гонка «цифровой ипотеки» только начнется в 2020 году. Остальная часть Большой шестерки, скорее всего, развернет расширенные ипотечные онлайн кредиты. Не все из них будут указывать высоко конкурентные тарифы в Интернете, но один или два будут, и этого будет достаточно, чтобы стимулировать еще большую конкуренцию в 2020 году.
«Мгновенных одобрений» станет меньше
Будьте готовы ко многим кредиторам и брокерам, рекламирующим «мгновенные одобрения ипотеки» в этом году. Но они не будут полностью одобренными. Причина в том, что в отличие от Соединенных Штатов, в Канаде нет технологии (пока) для автоматической проверки вашего дохода, работы и авансового платежа в электронном виде. Это означает, что большинство, если не все, «мгновенные одобрения» будут чрезмерно условными, доставленными заемщикам в электронном виде. «Условно» означает, что кредитор все еще должен вручную просматривать ваши документы.
Увеличатся ипотечные дефолты
Когда безработица начинает расти с минимальных значений цикла, когда неплатежеспособность потребителей достигает многолетних максимумов, когда процент располагаемого дохода, потребляемого в результате погашения долгов, достигает рекордного уровня, когда кривая доходности переворачивается и сигнализирует об экономическом спаде, именно тогда вам следует начать беспокоиться о росте ипотеки. Следующие 12 месяцев не будут катастрофой по умолчанию, но сегодняшняя 90-дневная ставка по ипотечным кредитам в размере 0,23 процента может выглядеть неплохо по сравнению с декабрем следующего года.
О фиксированной переменной
Порочное явление продажи пятилетних фиксированных ставок по ценам ниже переменных закончится в 2020 году, по крайней мере, временно. В то время как среднее пятилетнее фиксированное значение составляет около 15 базисных пунктов ниже средней переменной сегодня, фиксированные ставки вернутся на вершину. Базовая точка составляет одну сотую процентного пункта. Это побудит небольшой процент заемщиков перейти от пятилетних фиксированных ставок к ипотекам с плавающей ставкой. В более долгосрочной перспективе разрыв в фиксированных переменных останется уже, чем в прошлом, и будет становиться отрицательным. Это означает, что вы будете платить меньше за «страхование» долгосрочной фиксированной ставки.
Другие прогнозы
События, которые следуют, имеют более низкую вероятность, но специалисты ожидают одно или несколько из них:
- Регуляторы могут добавить освобождение от стресс-теста для людей, меняющих кредиторов, и/или изменить минимальный уровень квалификации стресс-теста.
- Стимулирование на покупку жилья для новичков в федеральном правительстве может стать более легким в Торонто, Ванкувере и Виктории.
- Банковский регулятор может одобрить способность людей покупать жильё на продажу более чем за 1 миллион долларов США всего лишь с 10-процентным первоначальным взносом. Текущий минимум составляет 20 процентов от покупной цены.
- Может быть заметное увеличение числа людей, использующих провинциально регулируемые кредитные организации, чтобы обойти федеральный ипотечный стресс-тест.
- Средняя цена на жилье в стране должна расти такими же темпами, как 6,2 процента, прогнозируемые Канадской ассоциацией недвижимости, по сравнению с консенсус-прогнозом аналитиков в 3 процента.
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